Since 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a list of 4 recommended models of new energy vehicles, involving a total of 1473 models. However, each catalogue is a gospel for new energy commercial vehicles. The first four batches of new energy buses have 926 models, 373 new energy vehicles, new energy commercial vehicles to promote the number of models accounted for as high as 88%. On the other hand, China Automobile Association data show that in April, new energy commercial vehicle sales fell 64.2% year-on-year to 3,883 vehicles; the first four months of sales fell 71.6% year-on-year sales of 8,588 vehicles. On the one hand, the country's efforts to promote new energy commercial vehicles are unprecedented, and on the other hand, the weak market sales. Why is such a sharp contrast formed?
With this problem, the reporter visited a number of passenger cars and logistics vehicle companies at the 2017 Beijing International Road Transport Vehicle Exhibition. The survey found that 30,000 kilometers and the inability to enter the “small catalog†became the biggest obstacle to the promotion of new energy logistics vehicles. Effects, market saturation, subsidy retreats, and 30,000 km of impact on corporate cash flow have become obstacles to the promotion of new energy buses.
The demand for new energy logistics vehicles is very strong
“The profit model of new energy logistics vehicles certainly exists, but most companies are still trying to figure it out. The current state is zero profit even in operation.†Song Yizhong, Dean of Shanghai Shenlong Bus New Technology Research Institute, accepts the first electric According to an interview with the website, the current situation of the new energy logistics vehicle is the most embarrassing. First, the cost of new energy logistics vehicles has been further increased due to subsidy retreat. How companies can absorb the extra purchase cost of traditional logistics vehicles is a major problem. It is through the reduction of operating costs or the convenience of road rights or other modes. In the exploration, most companies are still in the zero-profit stage;
Second, the subsidy policy adds 30,000 kilometers, that is, vehicles need to apply for subsidies after the accumulated mileage has reached 30,000 kilometers. Song Yizhong stated that this is very difficult for a new energy logistics vehicle. This is because the new energy logistics vehicle has a short operating mileage and a short operating time. Therefore, from the time the license plate is operated to the subsidy clearing, the cycle may be as long as two to three years or even longer. Li Tongsheng, Minister of Culture of Zhongtong Bus Brands, believes that up to 30,000 kilometers of new energy logistics vehicles is not a problem for logistics companies. It can reach 30,000 kilometers in a year or so, but for individual users and enterprises, it is A big challenge.
The last is the limit of the local directory. So far, Beijing has released two batches of filing lists, but there is no new energy logistics vehicle. “Beijing’s demand for new energy logistics vehicles is not great, but it cannot be sold without entering a small catalog company.†Deputy General Manager of Beijing Zeandada Yu Mei said with emotion. At the 2017 Global Smart Logistics Summit held on May 22nd, Wan Lin, president of Cainiao, said that in the future, there will be a demand for a total of RMB 50 billion and a total of 10 million new energy logistics vehicles in the country. The Cainiao Network will also participate in the future. It is trying to create 1 million new energy logistics vehicles equipped with a "rookie wisdom brain." Jingdong Liu Qiangdong also announced on May 4 that Jingdong will replace all tens of thousands of trucks with electric logistics vehicles in the next five years.
The huge market demand and outbreak potential are the distress of new energy logistics car companies. Song Yizhong stated that the new energy logistics vehicle of Shenlong Bus was developed at the end of last year, and Shenlong will decide whether to go on sale or not depending on this year's policy and market promotion. “The market for new energy logistics vehicles is starting slowly. We hope that the policies will be clear in terms of details and more inclined to new energy logistics vehicles.†Song Yizhong said.
New energy bus market is getting saturated this year, or about 70,000 vehicles sold
“The new energy bus market will definitely not reach the scale of last year this year. It is estimated that half of the scale will be marginal. It is estimated that the annual sales volume will be 60,000 units.†Song Yizhong said during the forecast of market conditions. The sales estimate of around 70,000 is consistent with the statement made by the reporters about the young cars and the Shu Chi buses. "I am still very optimistic about the new energy vehicle market, but the scale of new energy buses does not reach the level of previous years." Youth car workers stressed. Most bus companies stated that this was due to the direct or indirect effects of factors such as year-end effects, increased market saturation, subsidy retreats, and 30,000 kilometers.
The first is the subsidy retreat caused by the company's early volume at the end of last year. The end-of-year effect of subsidies due to subsidy declining slopes is widespread. It can be clearly seen from the sales curve in 2015 and 2016 that the sales volume has increased significantly in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the demand for overdue 2017 demand for orders is also expected. This end effect is reproduced in 2017 or later. Impact of subsidy retreats The promotion of new energy buses is the consensus view of most bus companies.
Followed by further improvement of market saturation. “Although the government has requested that the proportion of new energy vehicles in procurement vehicles continue to increase, the market capacity in the public areas is so great, and in 2016, a large number of orders have been released,†said Wang Lingjun, general manager of Shu Chi Bus Sales. It is understood that in the promotion of the new energy bus in Shenzhen, the bus will be fully electric in September this year, the promotion of the local bus is also gradually approaching the ceiling of market capacity. "On some lines, two buses are supposed to operate, but there are ten new energy buses." One bus company that does not wish to be named said that although buses occupy 70% of new energy bus sales, However, with the advent of the market ceiling, companies will face more difficulties in promoting new energy buses this year and beyond.
Finally, the 30,000-kilometer target also affected the landing of orders for new energy passenger cars. “The 30,000-kilometer distance for new energy buses, especially buses, is easy to realize. The biggest impact is actually the impact on the company's cash flow.†Li Xiaosheng believes that the new energy bus operation can basically reach 30,000 kilometers a year, in addition to Individual areas such as shuttle buses are difficult to achieve, but since the sales are based on post-subsidy prices, companies need to advance their subsidy funds. This has a large impact on the company's cash flow, and even results in the company's failure to function properly. There is a bus company saying frankly that the 30,000-kilometer rule or the desire to make the strong is stronger and the weaker one is weaker. This is because the small companies have been unable to carry out normal product research and development due to a backlog of funds, and the gap with industry leaders has gradually widened.
This year's new energy bus promotion is not all good news. The good news is that, apart from the government’s increasing proportion of the procurement of new energy vehicles by all units, the dividends of the Belt and Road will also benefit the bus companies. However, private bus companies such as Zhongtong and Shenlong stated that the first beneficiaries of the One Belt One Road initiative were state-owned enterprises, and private bus companies could enjoy this bonus in the second batch.
In addition, although the countries along the Belt and Road route are mostly infrastructure such as roads, subways, etc., which are relatively weak, this gives companies the opportunity to export abroad and also brings technical pressure. Like the Middle East market, exports are subject to European Union technical standards, and the export tariffs on vehicles are extremely high. Setting up factories in foreign countries has a relatively long investment and operating cycle. Therefore, there are both opportunities and challenges brought by the Belt and Road Initiative. In overseas markets, no bus company shied away.
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