Ma Yun said that children cannot find work after 30 years? Expert: No need to work

(Original title: After 30 years, the children could not find a job? Li Xiaohua: not necessarily)


Recently, Ma Yun made another remark: “Don't let children experience it, play it, and let them not try poetry and calligraphy. I can guarantee that children cannot find a job after 30 years.” This remark was quickly fermented on the Internet. , and became the top microblogging financial topic list this week.

Which jobs are easily replaced?

With the rapid development of the Internet and new technologies, some jobs and even some industries are facing adjustment or even disappear. In real life, we have seen some posts gradually replaced by machines and robots.

Is it foreseeable that children cannot find work after 30 years? With the development of science and technology, what industries have become the first to go? Which jobs are more easily replaced by new technologies?

In response, Li Xiaohua, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: “The current phenomenon of machines replacing humans is mainly based on new technologies and new technologies, especially the high-speed development of the artificial intelligence industry. Actually, artificial intelligence is subject to three factors in its application. Promote: First, hardware technology, second, deep algorithm, and third, big data. But in the final analysis, the integration of these data and the co-ordination of technology still require human control, and high-tech industries can hardly be replaced.”

For the industries that are most easily replaced in the future, Li Xiaohua thinks there are two main types: one is an industry with low innovation capacity, and the other is an industry with more repetitive labor.

Can we not find a job at all? NO

The experts did not agree with Ma Yun’s assertion that “I can guarantee that children cannot find a job after 30 years.”

Li Xiaohua believes that concerns about the work of the machine to seize the people have existed since the Industrial Revolution. At that time, there were handicraftsmen who went to fight the textile machine. However, from the development process of human society for two to three hundred years, new technologies and new machines have replaced the work of one person and created more jobs.

Lu Renbo thinks that if he can find a job in the future, he needs to work, and he can't look at it now. “The increase in productivity brought about by artificial intelligence can provide us with the same quality of services and at the same time, we can greatly shorten our working time. It took eight hours to complete the same work, and in the future we may need only five to assist with artificial intelligence. Hours, or even an hour. The labor force that supports family life can also be reduced."

“The problem of surplus labor is now common in some developed countries. With the development of science and technology, a family of five may only need one labor force to participate in the work, which is enough to support the entire family’s life. The rest of the family members do not need to work. "Lu edge wave added.

Rational and calm look at artificial intelligence

At the scene, in order for everyone to better understand the influence of artificial intelligence, Li Xiaohua cited an image story. A wise man invented a chess game for the king. The king liked it very much. He promised to reward the wise man. The wise man proposed to reward him with the rule: put a grain of rice on the first plaid on the chessboard, put two grains on the second plaid... Each One frame is double the previous frame. At the beginning, the king could easily afford it, and entering the second half of rice is already astronomical.

Li Xiaohua explained: “This is close to the development of artificial intelligence. With the breakthrough of artificial intelligence technology, there may be a decline in the absolute number of jobs in the future. We may soon enter this second half of chess, people and artificial intelligence. Competition has entered a turning point."

Lu edge wave said: "Even if there is no artificial intelligence, the world will continue to change. I think Ma Yun means to tell us that the world is constantly changing and we are going to discover its new trend. As long as we can catch new trends, I believe our future will not be as horrible as he said."

"In the future, our leisure time will increase substantially. We should cultivate more hobbies and don't lock in the purpose of the work to make more money," Lu Zhibo said.

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