As a breakthrough technology innovation that integrates a variety of new trends, the overall direction of the technological breakthrough in the fourth industrial revolution is digitalization, networking, intelligence, and green. As the largest developing country in the world, China is faced with a rare historical opportunity of “straight overtakingâ€. In order to seize this opportunity, China must not only play a good role in the market, but also play a role in the industrial policy through the government's "invisible hand." However, in the face of the new situation, it cannot simply move directly to the implementation of past industrial policies. In the successful practice.
Summary
The moment the world is in a period of profound changes in technology and industry, this profound transformation indicates the advent of the fourth industrial revolution. The main difference between this industrial revolution and the previous three industrial revolutions is manifested in the paradigm of innovation. The former is a modular innovation paradigm, and the latter is a fruit paradigm for picking fruits. The huge differences in the paradigm of innovation have made the fourth industrial revolution different from the basic logic of the first three industrial revolutions. It is difficult to grasp the process by adopting general techniques or analysis of backbone technologies, even though this method has been used to analyze the first three industrial revolutions. Is applicable. As a breakthrough technology innovation that integrates a variety of new trends, the overall direction of the technological breakthrough in the fourth industrial revolution is digitalization, networking, intelligence, and green. As the largest developing country in the world, China is faced with a rare historical opportunity of “straight overtakingâ€. In order to seize this opportunity, China must not only play a good role in the market, but also play a role in the industrial policy through the government's "invisible hand." However, in the face of the new situation, it cannot simply move directly to the implementation of past industrial policies. China’s successful practices must be advancing with the times and new planning and necessary transformation of industrial technology policies, industrial structure policies, industrial layout policies, and industrial organization policies in order to enhance China’s adaptation, participation, and leadership in the fourth industrial revolution. ability.
This is a phased achievement of the "Innovation Project of Industrial Growth, New Energy Conservation" project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the key discipline construction project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
We are in an era of profound changes. No one has questioned this. However, there is no consensus on some basic issues related to this change: For instance, is this revolution just a continuation of an old revolution, or a revolution of “subversive innovation†on the basis of the old revolution? Is it the third or fourth industrial revolution? What is the definition and extension of this change? In this context, how should China play its role as an industrial policy? And so on, these problems have not been fully discussed and have not been fundamentally resolved. It is precisely because of this that the Action Plan for the New Industrial Revolution of the Group of Twenty G20 issued at the G20 Summit in Hangzhou clearly stated that the G20 member summit is the main forum for international economic cooperation and it is necessary to carry out cooperative research and discuss new issues. The trend and influence of the industrial revolution form a consensus on the development process of the new industrial revolution; a new industrial revolution report drafted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization will be issued, summarizing the results of the new industrial revolution. Opportunities and challenges. Accurately judging the stage of the current industrial revolution and the basic logic and direction of the new industrial revolution, it is important for China to formulate a reasonable industrial policy and give full play to the role of industrial policy. The discussion of such issues is not only because there is no consensus on these issues. More importantly, they are essentially concerned with whether China can take the initiative to respond and effectively seize this new opportunity. Realize "straight overtaking".
First, how to understand the current stage of the industrial revolution
In 2008, the international financial crisis broke out in the United States. In response to this crisis, the major Western developed countries launched industrial revitalization and technological innovation policies, actively promoted a new industry and technological transformation, and injected new momentum for global economic development. Technology, new formats, and new business models are emerging. However, the understanding of the revolution is not uniform among all walks of life. This revolution has also been given various names, and the third or fourth industrial revolution is the most popular.
In 2012, the British "Economist" published an article entitled "The Third Industrial Revolution". It used 3D printing as a sign of a new technological revolution in the world and declared that the world is undergoing a third industrial revolution. 1, The third industrial revolution quickly became a hot topic in China. Parallel to this, in 2012 Germany established the Industry 4.0 Working Group and in the following year released the “Industry 4.0†report, claiming that the world is moving towards the fourth Industrial Revolution2. Since then, the domestic industry has started Discussion of the four industrial revolutions. Although the discussion on the fourth industrial revolution has increased day by day, the reference to the third industrial revolution has not disappeared. As a result, there has been a strange phenomenon. Some people call it the third most profound change that is currently taking place. The sub-industrial revolution was also called the fourth industrial revolution. The concepts of the third and fourth industrial revolutions were used simultaneously in the economics circle. What is even more shocking is that nobody even questioned whether the two coexisting states are reasonable. . This phenomenon may be explained by the fact that domestic government departments and academia believe that it is irrelevant whether the current industrial revolution should be called the third or fourth industrial revolution. It is just a name. In order to avoid the so-called unnecessary arguments and inconsistencies between the predecessors and appellations, some of the documents simply call it the new industrial revolution, and in the government-related documents, so far few see the fourth industrial revolution. This kind of attitude seems to be very practical and irrelevant, but the reason behind it is because we do not understand the depth of the current revolution.
1 The Third Industrial Revolution, The Economist, April 21, 2012.
2 Zhang Qi A Chief Editor: "Industrial Blue Book: China Industrial Competitiveness Report (2014)
The industrial revolution that is currently taking place is the third or the fourth industrial revolution. The question behind this question is whether this revolution is a subversive new industrial revolution. It is still just an old industry. The continuation of the revolution? Any revolution that can be called an industrial revolution must be groundbreaking and subversive. As a revolution that continues the old industrial revolution, it can only be gradual. The call for a fourth industrial revolution that is happening and is about to take place means that this industrial revolution is a breakthrough, and the current industrial revolution is called the third industrial revolution. Anyway, it declares what it has. The revolutionary nature can only mean that this industrial revolution is gradual. In the face of industrial revolutions of different natures, a country's coping strategies should not be the same. Different coping strategies may have huge differences in results. Therefore, what kind of title is correct involves deep understanding of the laws and nature of this change. Only with a correct and deep understanding of the law and nature of this change, can decision-making departments formulate scientific policies that adapt to change? In order to take reasonable actions, China will also be able to maximize the use of its own advantages and cultivate its own opportunities to better grasp the opportunities brought about by this new industrial revolution.
Jia Genliang (2014) has positioned the current industrial revolution from the perspective of a long economic cycle. He pointed out that the previous industrial revolutions were all 100-year cycles, and they all contained two long waves of Kondratyev. The odd-numbered long waves were intermittent and “leapfrogging†compared to the last industrial revolution, and even-numbered long-waves and last-odd odd-numbered ones. Long waves have continuity and are based on it. From this perspective, the long wave of the sixth Kondratyev, the "renewable energy revolution", is undoubtedly based on the long wave of the ICT revolution. Therefore, in his opinion, this industrial revolution is only the continuation or deepening of the third information technology revolution. The German government issued the German High-Technology Strategy in 2006. Based on this, it also launched the "2020 High-Tech Strategy" in 2010 and proposed a series of strategic areas that are focused on. Industry 4.0 is among them. In 2011, Hannover Industrial Fair was held in Germany and the concept of Industry 4.0 was proposed at this Expo. In 2012, a special working group was established in Germany to conduct research on Industry 4.0, and a related research report was published in April 2013. The report separately identified the invention and electrification of water and steam engines and information from the 1970s. It is called the first, second and third industrial revolutions and proposes that the world is now moving towards a new industrial revolution, that is, the Industry 4.0 era (Industrie 4.0 Working Group, 2013). In 2016, the World Economic Forum took the fourth industrial revolution as the focus topic. Schwab, chairman of the World Economic Forum, declared that the new industrial revolution cannot be regarded as a continuation of the third industrial revolution.
From the perspective of the history of economic development, the emergence of a long economic cycle will be accompanied by a major technological revolution. The end of a long economic cycle will be linked to the depletion of the potential of a major technological revolution. From the perspective of the trend of productivity changes, at the beginning of the cycle, productivity growth has been slow, and then productivity has risen sharply. After a period of substantial increase, productivity will decline again. This change in productivity is characteristic of a typical fruit-type innovation paradigm. The fruit innovation paradigm refers to the innovation of general purpose technology as the growth of new fruits, and the development and application of innovative innovations has always been the picking of fruits. Based on the innovative paradigm for picking fruits, a new general purpose technology emerges in the early days. Because the technology is immature and the scope of application is limited, the revenue can only be a trickle. When the general purpose technology is improved and spread, its revenue will become The torrent, but with the dying of the potential for technological proliferation, the benefits of technology will be reverted back to trickle. However, in addition to fruit innovation, there is another type of innovation—reform innovation. Weitzman (1998) regards the reorganization of old ideology as the source of new ideas. It is just like breeding the existing plants to produce new varieties. These varieties will be used as new varieties to enter the original variety bank, and so on. The variety of plants will be more and more. In this way of innovation, the pace of innovation will inevitably greatly increase, and new ideas will no longer constitute constraints on growth. The development of digital technology has provided great convenience for ideological reorganization, and promoted the transformation of innovative paradigms from picking fruits to modular innovations. The unprecedented increase in the generation, diffusion, and expansion of new technologies has made it difficult to use the laws of the past hundred years. Infer the future new economic cycle process.
3 Eric Bryan, Yofsen, Andrew McCaffie: The Second Machine Revolution, translated by Jiang Yongjun, China CITIC Press, 2014, pp. 177-183.
The third industrial revolution was driven by information technology, and information technology can be regarded as a universal technology for the third industrial revolution. This means that there are very close links between electronic information products that carry information technology and various other products. If the links between various products are calculated and a product space map is drawn based on these linkages, those products that embody general technology must be in the center. Therefore, whether the third industrial revolution is giving way to a new industrial revolution can be examined by examining whether there has been a major change in the product space structure, that is, whether or not the position of the electronic technology product in the product space diagram has changed. infer. Learn from Hidalgoetal. (2007) research method, Li Yi and Zhang Qizi (2013) constructed a product space map from 1992 to 2011. It was found that between 1992 and 2010, electronic information technology products that were carriers of information technology took place in the product space. A major change occurred between 1992 and 1994 in the center of the product space, but with the evolution of the product life cycle, these products gradually deviated from the center area and were finally separated from the product space in 2009-2011, with the wood processing and paper. Products and even traditional labor-intensive products such as apparel manufacturing are in the same position and become “members†of peripheral clusters.
The conclusion that the third industrial revolution is giving way to a new industrial revolution can also be supported by the trend of changes in productivity. Although we cannot use the concept of a hundred-year cycle to determine the current stage of the new industrial revolution, we can see whether the old industrial revolution has come to an end or whether the productivity is from the perspective of productivity change. After a large increase in growth, it has stagnated. In 2013, American economist Larry Sum-mers pointed out in the IMF summer speech that the US economy has entered a long-term stagnation period in response to the low economic growth rate, low employment growth rate, and low inflation rate after the international financial crisis. . The American economist Gordon (2012) reviewed the history of U.S. economic growth and pointed out that after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, global economic growth stagnated. Although researchers are still controversial about whether the United States and the global economy will enter a long period of stagnation since then, the findings of the two economists on the stagnation of economic growth have provided evidence from another perspective for the arrival of a new revolution.
Second, how to grasp the general trend of the fourth industrial revolution
In response to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the Chinese government has launched a series of strategies and policies, such as "Made in China 2025" and "The 13th Five-Year Plan for Strategic Development of New Countries". In order to implement the "13th Five-Year Plan for National Strategic Emerging Industries Development", the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments such as the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Finance, responded to the new changes in the development of strategic emerging industries. The 2013 edition of the Guidance Catalogue of Key Industries and Services for Sex and Emerging Industries (hereinafter referred to as the “Catalogueâ€) was revised and improved to form the “2016 Catalogue†version. Based on the 8 industries identified in the five major areas of the plan, China’s strategic emerging industries will be further developed. Refined to 40,000 sub-directions in 40 key directions, nearly 4000 subdivided products and services. Does the series of policies and measures of the Chinese government comply with the major trend of the fourth industrial revolution? In this regard, it is necessary to discuss the major trends of the fourth industrial revolution. Only with a full understanding of the fourth major industrial revolution trend can we focus on whether the key areas and directions emphasized by the Chinese government are related to the general trend of the fourth industrial revolution. Analyze to make an assessment.
From a technical perspective, what are the characteristics of the Fourth Industrial Revolution? When analyzing an industrial revolution, the usual practice is to divide the technology that promotes the industrial revolution into general and general technologies, and to focus its research on general technologies. Some studies continued to use the traditional logic in the analysis of the fourth industrial revolution. They simply attributed it to intelligence and used intelligence as the trunk of the industrial revolution. This kind of research method helps to highlight the key points and leaves the researchers not to be lost in the complicated details. However, the most important feature of the fourth industrial revolution is reorganization and innovation. The industrial revolution is to grow into a jungle, in the jungle. Different tree species will bear different fruits. Different fruits will be combined to grow new trunks and produce new fruits. Therefore, it will be difficult to accurately analyze the process of the Industrial Revolution using past analysis models and logic. , grasp its development law.
The grasp of the characteristics of the fourth industrial revolution must not be lost in simplistic generalizations, nor can it be trapped in the fog of emerging new concepts and new formulations. Otherwise, we cannot match the focus areas and directions highlighted by the Chinese government. The general trend makes a reasonable assessment. To deeply understand the connotation of the fourth industrial revolution, there are two ways. First, analyze the background of the fourth industrial revolution; the other is sorting out the various types of literature related to the new industrial revolution and refining them through inductive analysis. The law and characteristics of the new industrial revolution.
Although the fourth industrial revolution is a collective term for the profound technological changes that are taking place in the world, not just the industrial 4.0 proposed by Germany, but in the strategy of all countries to advance the new technological revolution, only the industry proposed by Germany The 4.0 strategy is based on the concept of the fourth industrial revolution. Therefore, studying the background of Germany's proposed Industry 4.0 will help to understand the key issues to be resolved in the Fourth Industrial Revolution and its significance. . The early German Industrial 4.0 strategy was put forward as part of its "High-tech Strategy". Germany's "High-tech Strategy" released in 2006 clearly stated its goal is to support German technology innovation in the EU and even the global market. leading position. After assessing and analyzing the effectiveness of the implementation of the 2006 "High-tech Strategy", the German government believes that this strategy has achieved remarkable results and has promoted the growth of German R&D investment and the expansion of the employment of R&D personnel and technicians. During the period of 2005-2008, the R&D investment of the German private sector increased by approximately 19%; between 2004 and 2008, the number of personnel engaged in research increased by approximately 12%; in 2008, the proportion of R&D expenditures to GDP reached 2.7%, and 30% of the company’s R&D. Benefit from the German government's improvement of research and innovation policies. Driven by the results of this positive assessment, the German government released "Ideology, Innovation and Prosperity: Germany's 2020 High-Technology Strategy" in 2010. In this strategy, the German government points out that in the coming decades, Germany will face huge The challenges of economic and financial policies require the maximum development of existing growth potential and the fostering of new and promising industries; after the international financial crisis, the competition for knowledge, technology and talent will become more fierce; the world will face a series of challenges. For example, climate change, population issues, food and energy supply, diseases, etc., all need to be solved by technological innovation. In addition, the report on the Industry 4.0 issued by the German 4.0 working group also pointed out that Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse and has great potential for the full development of Industry 4.0. Germany proposes and implements the Industry 4.0 strategy, which is mainly trying to deal with two major challenges.
The first is to solve the problem of the decline in the competitiveness of its manufacturing industry.
Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse. In 2003, it replaced the United States as the world's largest exporter of manufactured goods. Its exports of manufactured goods accounted for 11.4% of global manufacturing exports, while the United States dropped to 10.6%. When the "High-tech Strategy" was released in 2006, Germany remained the world's largest exporter of manufactured products, with exports accounting for 11.37%. Although this proportion increased further in 2007, it was surpassed by China and fell to second place. After the international financial crisis in 2008, the share of German manufactured exports as a percentage of global manufactured exports has been declining, and by 2012 it has fallen to around 10%. From the German government's point of view, the fundamental reason for the decline in the proportion of its exports of manufactured goods is competition from developing countries.
In addition to the challenges of developing countries, the German government also realized that its manufacturing industry will face greater challenges from developed countries in the future, especially the challenges of the United States. Before the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the international competitiveness of the service industry was generally on the rise, and the international competitiveness of the manufacturing industry continued to weaken. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the developed countries of the United States and Europe developed capitalist countries. Many reflections on its development strategy have come up with "reindustrialization" plans. The "reindustrialization" put forward by Western countries at that time, though not to completely rejuvenate traditional industrial production, was not the banner of the new industrial revolution. Until Rifkin’s "The Third Industrial Revolution" was published in 2011, the British "Economist" magazine put forward the concept of the third industrial revolution in 2012. The so-called "reindustrialization" of Western countries began with the new industrial revolution. Connected. In a nutshell, Germany's strategy for Industry 4.0 is both a description of a new industrial revolution and an overall measure of Germany's response to a new industrial revolution.
Second, one of the biggest differences between the German Industry 4.0 strategy and the ones faced by previous strategies is the unprecedented increase in the degree of globalization.
Against such a background, if a country is to succeed in a new industrial revolution, it must have a global perspective. Its industrial development and technological change can effectively solve and cope with common challenges in human development. . According to the German 4.0 working group, Industry 4.0 can effectively meet the challenges brought about by the global resources and energy problems.
Supporting a country’s economic development is not only economic capital but also natural capital. The first and second industrial revolutions mainly addressed the problem of economic capital that underpinned economic development. Human use of natural capital has not yet reached or reached the ceiling. In the period of the third industrial revolution, resources, environment, and energy issues began to receive attention. Resource and environmental issues turned from the background of economic development to the frontier and became an important factor influencing the third industrial revolution. However, in the process of the third industrial revolution, although the developed countries basically solved their traditional domestic environmental problems, they did not completely alleviate the challenges faced by the world in terms of resources and the environment. Human damage to the environment has not been completely terminated. The "Inclusive Wealth Report (2014): Measurement of Sustainable Development Capacity" issued by UNU-IHDP and UN-EP in 2014 measures the production capital, human capital, and natural capital of 120 countries around the world. Its conclusion is that Compared with 1992, global production capital increased by 56% in 2010, human capital increased by 6%, and natural capital decreased by 30%. In the first, second and third industrial revolutions, the energy used by humans was mainly fossil energy. Fossil energy is not only non-renewable, but also generates greenhouse gases during use, which increases global temperatures. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and controlling global warming remains one of the major challenges facing human development.
As the new industrial revolution is still in its infancy, it has different interpretations of its direction. New concepts and new technologies emerge in an endless stream. Domestic scholars have also done many useful explorations based on the study of foreign scholars. The concepts and new technologies are detailed in Table 1. In order to extract the core elements of the fourth industrial revolution from a variety of complex concepts, we use the qualitative research methods in social science research to recode various concepts through the typical text analysis of the fourth industrial revolution. , categorizing, merging existing concepts concerning the new industrial revolution and the technologies involved into four categories: (1) related to digitization; (2) related to networking; (3) related to intelligence; (4) Related to greening (see Table 2). In other words, the fourth industrial revolution is a destructive technological innovation that has converged on the four major trends of digitalization, networking, intelligence, and greenization5.
4 UNU-IHDP, UNEP: “Inclusive Wealth Report (2014): Measurement of Sustainable Development Capabilitiesâ€.
5 Deng Yonghong, Zhang Qizi: "China's Strategic Choice for the Fourth Industrial Revolution", "China Academic Journal" 2015, Issue 6.
How to play the role of industrial policy in the context of the fourth industrial revolution
Formulating sound industrial policies is of great strategic importance for China to adapt, participate in, and lead the fourth industrial revolution. In September 2016, Professor Zhang Weiying and Professor Lin Yifu’s two different views on industrial policy triggered a heated debate in the economics community. Both parties launched a debate on the necessity and effectiveness of industrial policy. Although the theoretical debate on the role of industrial policy will continue, but in practice, the state has no choice but to have an industrial policy. The key lies in what kind of industrial policy to implement and how to play the role of industrial policy. In the face of the fourth wave of industrial revolution, China must firmly abandon the practice of completely repudiating industrial policies, and must also avoid directly adopting past successful practices to the new stage without regard to changes in historical conditions. The fourth industrial revolution has its own characteristics. By playing its role as an industrial policy, it seizes the opportunities it provides for overtaking straight roads in China, and the transformation of industrial policies is necessary.
1. Industrial technology policy transformation.
As a developing country, the technical objective of traditional industrial policies is to realize imitative innovation by imitating the advanced technologies of developed countries, and to shorten the gap between developed countries and advantageous industries. It is a catch-up industrial technology policy. As far as the current level of economic development and industrial technology are concerned, China has greatly improved compared to the initial period of reform and opening up, but it is still the largest developing country that has not changed its basic national conditions. China's industrial development is facing the common problem faced by developing countries in moving toward high-income countries, that is, in the process of catching up with developed countries, their level of development will be higher and higher, and the distance from the technological frontier will be more and more. Short, late-stage technical dividends will be less and less. As a result, the pressure to maintain steady growth through catch-up will grow bigger. To maintain sustained and steady growth of the economy, it is imperative to pursue the research of related topics at the same time in the process of catching up. Therefore, with the improvement of China's economic development level, the goal of industrial and technological policies should achieve the transition from the catch-up to run-and-leader-oriented targets. The Fourth Industrial Revolution undoubtedly highlights the urgency and necessity of this transformation. It mainly embodies the following three aspects:
First, the fourth industrial revolution has promoted the ambitions of the developed countries to revitalize the manufacturing industry, making the manufacturing industry in China face fiercer competition. To meet the challenges of the new industrial revolution, in recent years, many countries have issued medium and long-term development strategies for manufacturing industries, such as Germany’s “Industry 4.0â€, France’s “New Industry France†and the EU’s “European Industrial Digital Strategyâ€. , Korea's Manufacturing Innovation 3.0, Indian India Manufacturing Strategy, Spain's Industrial Connection 4.0, Russia's National Technology Plan The implementation of the series plan will form new technological frontiers and new production possibilities borders, thus greatly changing the comparative advantages of China and developed countries. At this stage, although the labor cost in China has risen by a certain margin, which is higher than in some developing countries, compared with developed countries, there are still labor cost advantages. With the machine-to-human substitution that has occurred in the fourth industrial revolution, China has developed The country’s labor cost advantage will disappear and it will be difficult to use labor cost advantages to compete with developed countries. At the same time, the new production possibilities boundary and the new technological frontier will make the existing frontier technology obsolete, weaken the dividends of catch-up development strategies, and increase the dividends of running and leading-type technology strategies.
Second, the fourth industrial revolution will cause major changes in the traditional industrial structure, making it extremely difficult or impossible to catch up with the catch-up strategy and pursue the route. The first industrial revolution formed the international division of labor between industrial production and agricultural production. The second industrial revolution produced a global division of labor among industries. The third industrial revolution brought about the division of labor in the industrial chain. The production of products was divided into different links. Different links have different added values. In this context, China, as a developing country, has a clearer catch-up goal, that is, it is rising toward the high end of the industry chain. The fourth industrial revolution will reshape the global industrial division of labor, and the global industrial division of labor will shift from industrial chain division to industrial network division of labor, and a multi-layered networked manufacturing pattern will be formed. In this new context, the information condition for ensuring the success of the catch-up strategy no longer exists. The global network of industrial division of labor makes the global industrial division of labor more equal, and the information required to determine the target of catching up and catching up with the route is increasing explosively. With great uncertainty, it is difficult to grasp this precisely.
Third, the world is experiencing a profound technological revolution. This provides an unprecedented historical opportunity for China to shape its ability to rely more on innovation and give full play to its first-mover advantage. In recent years, China has successively achieved a number of major scientific and technological achievements, reached the international advanced level, and has occupied a certain status at the forefront of international science and technology. However, the ability of enterprises to carry out frontier technological innovation and their ability to cultivate and exert first-mover advantage is still not strong enough. The ability to implement disruptive innovation still needs to be further accumulated. The World Intellectual Property Report 2015 released by the World Intellectual Property Organization pointed out that China has performed well in patent applications in 3D printing, nanotechnology and robotics engineering. Since 2005, the global 3D printing and robotics projects In the field of patent applications in the field of science, the share of patent applications in China accounted for more than a quarter, and in terms of nanotechnology, China is the third largest source of patent applications. China's leading development ability to make full use of its first-mover advantage is in a period of accumulation, which also provides a realistic basis for the transformation of China's industrial technology policy.
2. The transformation of industrial structure policies.
Although China's industrial structure has been continuously optimized, the tasks of industrial restructuring are still heavy. The main problem in China's industrial structure is that although labor- and resource-intensive industries and low-tech industries have strong international competitiveness, they are facing greater costs, quality, and environmental protection pressures; Inadequate industrial development capacity does not have a clear comparative advantage as a whole; the proportion of service industry in GDP has exceeded that of industry, but the overall competitiveness is insufficient, and there is a big gap between the knowledge and technology content in service exports compared with developed countries. One of the tasks of China’s structural adjustment is to increase the international competitiveness of high-end and middle-end products and increase the contribution of high-end and middle-end industries to China’s economic growth by realizing industrial transformation and upgrading.
Industrial policy has always been an important tool to promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure. In solving the problems faced by China's industrial transformation and upgrading in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, industrial policies should still play an important role, but their methods need to be transformed. Traditional industrial policies play a role in identifying the industries that need to be supported. These industries usually have greater externalities. The identification method includes analyzing the driving effect of the industry through the input-output table to identify the leading industries that should be supported; by analyzing the industrial structure of countries with similar or higher level of economic development, determine the key points of industrial development and so on. These methods have played an important role in the formulation of China's industrial policies, but such practices are more effective in the period of gradual technological change, because in this context, the trend and direction of industrial change are easier to judge. In the face of breakthrough technological innovation and innovation, these methods will face great challenges, because in such a period, the relationship between industries will be reshaped and the technical relations between industries will undergo disruptive changes. It is the government, the enterprise, or the experts that cannot identify the true leading industries scientifically based on historical industrial relations. The fourth industrial revolution will be a breakthrough innovation. This change is global. The developed countries have promoted the fourth industrial revolution plan. Although there will be some inspiration for China's formulation of industrial policies, the industrial structure of developed countries is also being Reshaped, China will find it difficult to choose the dominant industries that it needs to support by following the strategies of developed countries. The greater challenge of implementing highly targeted industrial policies by identifying leading industries lies in the fact that the digital and networked nature of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is redefining the boundaries of industries, and the convergence between industry and industry is very Obviously, the change in innovation methods caused by factors such as digitization, networking, and intelligence has made the diffusion path of technological innovation and industrial change more random and diverse.
There are two types of policies for industrial restructuring: One is to identify and identify leading industries, and to implement more targeted interventions, the traditional industrial policy in China falls into this category; the other is the wider use of government. The policy, under such a policy, “only needs to determine the industries that benefit from these policies compared with those industries that are suppressed by these policies,†and it can bring more learning benefits to the society. And the industry will choose itself in an economy. With stronger learning ability, the expansion of enterprises and industries will enhance overall economic capabilities." 6.与第一ç§æ–¹æ³•æ¯”，实行更具针对性的产业政ç–的益处是，å¯ä»¥ä¿ƒè¿›æ›´å¤šçš„知识积累和更快速的ç»æµŽå¢žé•¿ï¼Œä»Žè€Œå…·æœ‰æ›´é«˜çš„效率，但这一方法对国家的治ç†èƒ½åŠ›çš„è¦æ±‚更高，而且需è¦èƒ½å‡†ç¡®è¯†åˆ«å‡ºâ€œæ›´å…·é’ˆå¯¹æ€§â€çš„具体产业。总体而言，在第四次工业é©å‘½çš„背景下，选择è¿ç”¨è¾ƒâ€œå¹¿æ³›çš„政ç–工具的产业政ç–â€è¾ƒä¸ºå¯è¡Œã€‚
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3.产业布局政ç–的转型。
改é©å¼€æ”¾å››åå¹´æ¥ï¼Œä¸å›½æ—©æœŸçš„产业布局政ç–多以主导产业为导å‘ï¼Œæ ¹æ®èµ„æºç¦€èµ‹ã€äººåŠ›èµ„本ã€åŒºåŸŸç»æµŽå¹³è¡¡å‘展ç‰å› ç´ è¿›è¡Œäº§ä¸šå¸ƒå±€ã€‚éšç€æŠ€æœ¯è¿›æ¥å’Œäº§ä¸šè½¬åž‹å‡çº§çš„需è¦ï¼Œå„地区的生产è¦ç´ ä»·æ ¼å‡ºçŽ°å˜åŠ¨ï¼ŒåŒºåŸŸç»æµŽå‘展水平差è·æ‰©å¤§ï¼Œä¸œéƒ¨åœ°åŒºåœŸåœ°ã€åŠ³åŠ¨åŠ›ä»·æ ¼å¤§å¹…上涨，大城市的低端产业亟待ç–散，产业政ç–长期关注的是国内区域间的产业布局和转移。但éšç€å·¥ä¸šåŒ–水平的æ高，ä¸å›½çš„部分产业已ç»è¾¾åˆ°äº†ä¸–界领先水平，具备了å‘国外扩展产业布局的能力。更为é‡è¦çš„是，通过产业的国际化布局，å¯ä»¥æ›´å¥½åœ°åˆ©ç”¨å…¨çƒçš„创新资æºï¼Œæ‰©å¤§åˆ›æ–°å¯åˆ©ç”¨çš„çŸ¥è¯†æ± ã€‚
è¦åœ¨ç¬¬å››æ¬¡å·¥ä¸šé©å‘½ä¸å 有一å¸ä¹‹åœ°ï¼Œä¸€ä¸ªå›½å®¶åœ¨åˆ¶å®šäº§ä¸šæ”¿ç–时就必须使政ç–ä¸ä»…能利用其在知识和å¦ä¹ 能力方é¢çš„比较优势，而且能够ä¸æ–地æ高这ç§èƒ½åŠ›ã€‚å½±å“è¿™ç§èƒ½åŠ›åˆ©ç”¨å’ŒåŸ¹è‚²çš„å› ç´ å¾ˆå¤æ‚，但扩大å¯åˆ©ç”¨çš„â€œçŸ¥è¯†æ± â€è‚¯å®šæ˜¯é‡è¦çš„å› ç´ ä¹‹ä¸€ã€‚å®žæ–½å¼€æ”¾å¼åˆ›æ–°ç–ç•¥åˆ™æ˜¯æ‰©å¤§â€œçŸ¥è¯†æ± â€èµ„æºçš„åŠ é€Ÿå™¨ã€‚
一个国家è¦å¤„于国际创新的最å‰æ²¿ï¼Œå°±å¿…须利用国际科技资æºï¼Œå»ºç«‹å…¨çƒåˆ›æ–°ç½‘络，实行开放å¼åˆ›æ–°æˆ˜ç•¥ï¼Œè¿™å¯¹äºŽå‘展ä¸å›½å®¶æ¥è¯´æ˜¾å¾—尤其é‡è¦ã€‚对产业进行全çƒåŒ–布局是支撑开放å¼åˆ›æ–°çš„关键措施，“从æŸç§ç¨‹åº¦ä¸Šæ¥è¯´ï¼Œå¦ä¹ 在地ç†ä¸Šæ˜¯å±€éƒ¨åŒ–的，å¦ä¹ 的局部化也是æºäºŽä¿¡æ¯æµåŠ¨çš„局部化。当人们在地ç†ä¸Šåˆ†å¼€åŽï¼Œè”系的密度就会é™ä½Žï¼Œæ²Ÿé€šçš„效率å¯èƒ½ä¹Ÿä¼šæ‰“折扣。â€â‘¦å®žçŽ°äº§ä¸šçš„å…¨çƒåŒ–布局，å¯ä»¥åŠ 强与其他国家的è”系，æ高沟通效率，克æœå±€éƒ¨åŒ–å¦ä¹ 所带æ¥çš„éšœç¢ã€‚
⑦ çº¦ç‘Ÿå¤«Â·æ–¯è’‚æ ¼é‡ŒèŒ¨ç‰ï¼šã€Šå¢žé•¿çš„方法：å¦ä¹ 型社会与ç»æµŽå¢žé•¿çš„新引擎》，第７７页。
4.产业组织政ç–的转型。
第四次工业é©å‘½åœ¨äº§ä¸šç»„织上未æ¥ä¼šå½¢æˆä¸¤ç§è¶‹åŠ¿ï¼Œä¸€ç§æ˜¯åˆ†æ•£åŒ–的趋势，å¦ä¸€ç§åˆ™æ˜¯é«˜åº¦é›†ä¸åŒ–的趋势。第四次工业é©å‘½åœ¨æŸäº›æƒ…况下会形æˆä¸€ç§èµ¢å®¶é€šåƒçš„å±€é¢ï¼šæ•°å—åŒ–åˆ›é€ äº†èµ¢å®¶é€šåƒçš„市场，数å—化产å“的容é‡é™åˆ¶å·²ç»æ—¥ç›Šå˜å¾—æ— å…³ç´§è¦ï¼Œäº§å“的生产者仅å‡è‡ªå·±å†åŠ ä¸Šä¸€ä¸ªç½‘ç«™å°±èƒ½åˆ›é€ æˆåƒä¸Šä¸‡çš„客户群体；交通和通信领域的技术进æ¥æ‰©å±•äº†å…¬å¸çš„业务范围，使得那些次优产å“çš„ç”Ÿäº§è€…ï¼Œæ— æ³•é€šè¿‡æ¶ˆè´¹è€…çš„æ— çŸ¥æˆ–è€…åœ°ç†çš„éšœç¢æ¥ä¿æŠ¤ä»–们的边际利润了；网络åŠå…¶æ ‡å‡†åŒ–应用的é‡è¦æ€§æ—¥ç›Šçªå‡ºï¼Œç”±æ¤äº§ç”Ÿçš„ç½‘ç»œæ•ˆåº”ä¼šåˆ›é€ èµ¢å®¶é€šåƒçš„å±€é¢â‘§ï¼Œåœ¨è¿™æ ·ä¸€ç§è¶‹åŠ¿ä¸‹ï¼Œä¼ä¸šçš„相对优势会带æ¥ç»å¯¹æŽ§åˆ¶ã€‚
第四次工业é©å‘½åŒæ ·ä¸ºä¸å°ä¼ä¸šçš„生å˜å’Œå‘å±•åˆ›é€ äº†æ›´å¤§ç©ºé—´ã€‚æ˜“è¨€ä¹‹ï¼Œï¼“ï¼¤æ‰“å°æŠ€æœ¯ä¸Žç‰©è”网的结åˆï¼Œä¼šäº§ç”Ÿä¸€ç§æ–°çš„åˆ¶é€ æ¨¡å¼ï¼Œå³äº‘åˆ¶é€ æ¨¡å¼ï¼Œè¿™æ˜¯ä¸€ç§æ›¿ä»£å¤§è§„模生产的方案，且由å°è§„模ã€åˆ†å¸ƒå¼èŠ‚点组æˆï¼Œæ˜¯ä¸€ç§ç”±å°åž‹åˆ¶é€ ä¼ä¸šç»„æˆçš„超大规模网络的分布系统⑨。第四次工业é©å‘½å°†å‚¬ç”Ÿåˆ†æ•£å¼çš„物è”网基础设施建设，é™ä½Žå•†å“å’ŒæœåŠ¡ç”Ÿäº§åŠé…é€è¿‡ç¨‹ä¸çš„通信ã€èƒ½æºå’Œç‰©æµè¾¹é™…æˆæœ¬ã€‚通过去除价值链ä¸å‡ 乎所有ä¸é—´çŽ¯èŠ‚的交易æˆæœ¬ï¼Œä¸å°åž‹ä¼ä¸šå’Œæ•°å亿的产消者å¯ä»¥åœ¨ååŒå…±äº«ä¸‹ä»¥è¿‘乎零的边际æˆæœ¬ç›´æŽ¥åˆ†äº«å•†å“å’ŒæœåŠ¡ï¼Œé™ä½Žäº†åˆ›å»ºæ–°ä¼ä¸šçš„æˆæœ¬â‘©ã€‚基于互è”网基础上å‘展起æ¥çš„互è”网金èžï¼Œä½¿å¾—ä¸å°ä¼ä¸šæ›´å®¹æ˜“获得èžèµ„，从而çªç ´ä¼ 统市场ç»æµŽæ¡ä»¶ä¸‹ä¸å°ä¼ä¸šèžèµ„难对其å‘展的资金约æŸã€‚
⑧ 埃里克·布莱æ©çº¦å¼—森ã€å®‰å¾·é²Â·éº¦å¡è²ï¼šã€Šç¬¬äºŒæ¬¡æœºå™¨é©å‘½ã€‹ï¼Œç¬¬ï¼‘７７～１８３页。
⑨ 胡迪·利普曼ã€æ¢…å°”èŠÂ·åº“曼：《３Ｄ打å°ï¼šä»Žæƒ³è±¡åˆ°çŽ°å®žã€‹ï¼Œèµ›è¿ªç ”究院专家组译，ä¸ä¿¡å‡ºç‰ˆç¤¾ï¼’ï¼ï¼‘３年版，第６９页。
â‘© æ°é‡Œç±³Â·é‡Œå¤«é‡‘：《零边际æˆæœ¬çš„社会：一个物è”网ã€åˆä½œå…±èµ¢çš„æ–°ç»æµŽæ—¶ä»£ã€‹ï¼Œèµ›è¿ªç ”究院专家组译，ä¸ä¿¡å‡ºç‰ˆç¤¾ï¼’ï¼ï¼‘４年版，第２３页。
é¢å¯¹ä¸Šè¿°ä¸¤ç§è¶‹åŠ¿ï¼Œäº§ä¸šç»„织政ç–çš„æ ¸å¿ƒæ˜¯åˆ›å»ºä¸€ç§å¤§ä¸å°ä¼ä¸šèžåˆå‘å±•çš„æ ¼å±€ï¼Œåœ¨å…·ä½“å®žæ–½æœºåˆ¶ä¸Šå°±æ˜¯è¦å调好产业政ç–与竞争政ç–ã€åˆ›æ–°æ”¿ç–的关系，ä¸ä»…è¦æ”¯æŒå¤§ä¼ä¸šçš„å‘展，特别是平å°åž‹ä¼ä¸šçš„å‘展，åŒæ—¶è¦åŠ 强对ä¼ä¸šåž„æ–行为的监管，充分å‘挥大ä¼ä¸šçš„引领作用，为大ä¸å°ä¼ä¸šèžé€šå‘展æ供良好的环境。
ï¼’ï¼ä¸–纪８ï¼å¹´ä»£ä»¥æ¥ï¼Œå›½å†…å¦è€…较为关注产业政ç–的实施，而将竞争政ç–作为产业政ç–å¯æœ‰å¯æ— 的补充，甚至将竞争政ç–看作一ç§ç‰¹æ®Šçš„产业组织政ç–，认为竞争政ç–应该æœä»ŽäºŽäº§ä¸šæ”¿ç–⑪。从性质上看，产业政ç–与竞争政ç–都是政府干预微观ç»æµŽè¿è¡Œçš„政ç–手段，目的都是促进产业部门的å‘展，弥补市场的缺陷。但两ç§æ”¿ç–在实施机构ã€åˆ©ç›Šå‡ºå‘点ã€äº§ä¸šæŒ‡å‘性ã€ä½œç”¨æ—¶é—´ç‚¹ã€å®žæ–½æ‰‹æ®µç‰æ–¹é¢éƒ½å˜åœ¨æ˜Žæ˜¾çš„差异。我国的产业政ç–通常是通过国务院ã€å‘改委ã€å·¥ä¿¡éƒ¨ã€å•†åŠ¡éƒ¨ã€ç§‘技部ç‰éƒ¨é—¨å‘布，以生产者为导å‘，具有明确的产业指å‘，且对产业的支æŒå…·æœ‰é¢„期性和æå‰å¸ƒå±€çš„特点。相应地，竞争政ç–的实施机构为国务院ååž„æ–委员会ã€å•†åŠ¡éƒ¨ã€å›½å®¶å·¥å•†æ€»å±€ç‰æ‰§æ³•æœºæž„，没有特定产业指å‘，主è¦å¯¹è¿å竞争的ä¼ä¸šè¡Œä¸ºè¿›è¡Œäº‹åŽè°ƒèŠ‚。两者之间有时难å…å‘生冲çªï¼Œæ‰€ä»¥ï¼Œå调产业政ç–与竞争政ç–çš„å…³ç³»ï¼Œåœ¨æœºåˆ¶ä¸ŠåŠ å¼ºéƒ¨é—¨ä¹‹é—´çš„æ²Ÿé€šå’Œåè°ƒå分必è¦ï¼Œåœ¨ç¬¬å››æ¬¡å·¥ä¸šé©å‘½è¿™ä¸ªå¤§èƒŒæ™¯ä¸‹å°¤å…¶é‡è¦ã€‚
产业组织政ç–转型的å¦ä¸€ä¸ªé‡è¦æ–¹é¢ï¼Œåˆ™æ˜¯è¦å»ºç«‹ä¸€ç§æ— 许å¯åˆ›æ–°çš„体制机制，竞争是鼓励创新的一ç§æ–¹å¼ï¼Œä½†è¿˜æœ‰ä¸€ç§æœºåˆ¶ï¼Œå°±æ˜¯è¦ä»¥åˆ›æ–°æ³•å¾‹æ¥ç®¡ç†åˆ›æ–°ã€‚创新是一个ä¸æ–å‘展和试错的过程，但政府管ç†å…·æœ‰è¿žç»æ€§å’Œç¨³å®šæ€§çš„特å¾ï¼Œæ‰€ä»¥ï¼Œæ”¿åºœå¾€å¾€ä¼šè®©åˆ›æ–°ä¸ŽçŽ°æœ‰æ³•å¾‹æ³•è§„相适应，而ä¸æ˜¯ç›¸å，å¦åˆ™ä¼šé˜»ç¢åˆ›æ–°ã€‚ä¸ºäº†ç ´é™¤è¿™ä¸€é˜»ç¢ï¼Œæ”¿åºœåº”建立一ç§æ— 许å¯åˆ›æ–°æœºåˆ¶ï¼Œå°±æ˜¯æ–°æŠ€æœ¯çš„åˆ›é€ è€…ï¼Œåœ¨å…¶æœåŠ¡æŠ•æ”¾å¸‚场å‰æ— 须得到政府许å¯ï¼Œæ–°æŠ€æœ¯ã€æ–°çš„商业模å¼é™¤éžå…¶è¢«è¯æ˜Žä¼šç»™ç¤¾ä¼šå¸¦æ¥ä¸¥é‡å±å®³ï¼Œå¦åˆ™éƒ½åº”该被默许。
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