We recently visited the 2010 China (Shanghai) International LED Indoor Lighting Exhibition and the 2010 4th (Shanghai) International Street Light, Garden Lights and Outdoor Lighting Exhibition. The scale of this exhibition is small, mainly for small and medium-sized LED lighting manufacturers, and the larger manufacturers are only BYD, Qinshang, etc. Although the product may not be the most advanced in the industry, we still see the booming industry. Through the visits of more than 10 LED lighting manufacturers, component manufacturers and competitors high-pressure gas lamps manufacturers, we are optimistic about the application prospects of LED in the lighting industry.
Lighting products are relatively mature.
The LED lighting products of various manufacturers have been relatively mature and have various uses, ranging from high-power outdoor street lamps, landscape decoration lamps and high ceiling indoor lamps to smaller power table lamp bulbs, cabinet lamps and fluorescent lamps. The exhibits are also dominated by relatively high-end white lights. The brightness of the product also reached a relatively high level, most of which is 70-90 lm/w.
The product design is diversified, the multi-chip package has a small ghost image, and the single-chip array can be made into various shapes. In terms of heat dissipation, we have also seen various solutions. Many manufacturers attach the chip to the metal lamp cover and use the lamp cover as a heat dissipation tool. Some manufacturers make the lampshade into a grid or sheet that is easy to dissipate heat, and some claim to add rare earth elements to the copper lampshade to greatly improve the heat dissipation coefficient.
Price barriers are expected to be mitigated to some extent.
The 100-watt lamp used in the outdoor or high ceiling room is priced at 2,500-4,500 yuan, while the 3-5w lamp used for indoor general lighting is priced at 50-100 yuan. LED light source prices are still much higher than fluorescent lamps, but they are already acceptable to some consumers; we understand that a company sold more than 100 100-yuan bulbs within 2 days of the show. Some dealers believe that if the price can be reduced by 20%-30% on the current basis, it will greatly enhance the appeal of the product to ordinary consumers. We believe that with the completion of the chip manufacturer's capacity expansion, the price of LED lighting products can be reduced by 20%-30% within one year.
Misunderstandings about the useful life will be overcome.
At present, the service life of most LED light sources is about 20,000-30,000 hours, but some people in the market are overly optimistic that the service life of LEDs can reach the theoretical value of 50,000 or even 100,000 hours. Another part has the life expectancy of LEDs. Excessively pessimistic estimates.
Power supply is a bottleneck that limits the life of many LED lamps. Usually, the power supply can only be used for 1-2 years (the service life is less than 10,000 hours), which is shorter than the life of the LED light source. For some common consumption, replacing the entire lamp is more expensive than replacing the power supply. Simple, so that these consumers mistake the life of the power supply as the life standard of LED light source. The industry lacks uniform standards. Some manufacturers have low product quality, fast light decay and short life, which affects the overall image of the industry, such as some in Beijing. The street lights installed in the area showed severe light decay after 8 months, and the brightness dropped drastically.
In practical applications, even the industry is still accumulating experience. Everyone usually thinks that LED street lamps have high heat dissipation requirements and are more suitable for use in cold regions. However, some street lamps installed in the northeast have encountered serious problems in the winter than in the south. The temperature of the LED lampshade is high. When the snow is relatively small, the snow falling on the lampshade can easily be turned into water and then evaporated, but when snow In a very large time, snowflake is easy to accumulate on the lampshade, forming ice, and forming an air layer between the ice and the lampshade, which seriously affects the heat dissipation function of the lampshade. In addition, due to the design of the design, some manufacturers of street lamp shades are easy to fall on dust, especially in areas where sand and dust are more serious, thus affecting heat dissipation and reducing the life of LED light sources. We believe that with the promotion of LED applications and the increase in the experience of relevant personnel, these problems will be solved, thus overcoming some people's misunderstanding of LED.
The LED industry chain will benefit from lighting applications.
Out of the market's expectations, Taiwanese manufacturers attach great importance to the Chinese mainland lighting market. Guangding's subsidiary Nanjing Huading has displayed strip lights and 3W/1W cabinet lights; chip maker Jingyuan Optoelectronics is well-known among lighting manufacturers. It is a major supplier to a number of luminaire manufacturers with packaging capabilities; some companies also send technicians to support their mainland partners on the spot.
Some luminaire manufacturers are still relatively new to domestic chips, and they believe that imported chips have greater advantages in terms of quality and performance. We believe that the leading domestic chips and packaging products have basically met the lighting requirements. With the advancement of technology and the further improvement of the quality of domestically produced products, the popularity of domestic chips and packaging manufacturers will be improved.
Due to the tight supply of LED chips, we have not seen the trend of falling chip prices, which has hindered the large-scale application of LEDs in the lighting industry. In the market, some people are worried that the expansion of existing chip manufacturers will cause overcapacity, so they are not optimistic about the LED industry. We believe that the current production capacity of raw materials and chips has lagged behind demand. This bottleneck has caused the price of chips to remain high, which has constrained the scale of the entire industry. Only when the capacity of chip manufacturers has expanded, the existing demand can be satisfied. Only when the capacity is further expanded, the price of the chip can be expected to decline, the demand can be further increased, the LED industry can be more scaled, and the cost can be further reduced, thus making the whole The industry is on the track of healthy development.
We are optimistic about the application prospects of LED in the lighting industry. With the expansion of chip production scale and price decline, LED lamps will enter the ordinary consumer family within 2-3 years.
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